2007年移动和无线领域7大趋势

!yd w4[O,Pi0These two top stories of 2006 lead us to my predictions of the seven top mobile and wireless trends for 2007. Some of these trends will fully flower in 2007, while in other cases we'll just see the start of a big trend that will develop more fully in years to come.

G#E+ra:OfI1m01. More mobile access, more competition

If Sprint sticks with its schedule, we'll get a taste of mobile WiMax by the end of 2007. Besides being mobile and nationwide, the network Sprint is promising will be fast and cheap -- at least compared with 3G mobile data service.在线教育资讯"f9B7t"vm-V Vs1B

But that isn't the only new type of access we'll see in 2007. In the next year, we'll see the launch of a number ofmajor citywide Wi-Fi networks. Philadelphia is, perhaps, building the most discussed of these networks, but about 300 municipalities are reportedly either building or planning to build these sometimes controversial networks.

The bottom line is that these two emerging types of networks will lead to increased mobility, more demand for mobile services and applications and, perhaps best of all, more competition for your mobile access dollar.

If you want mobile data access, you'll no longer be limited to using the services of a cellular operator or hunting for a Wi-Fi hot spot. Providers such asEarthLinkandMetroFiwill be installing and running the municipal networks, which will make them, at some level, competitors to the cellular operators and even to incumbent telecom operators that provide DSL. That type of increased competition can only be good for both enterprise users and consumers.

2. The era of 'the big bundle'在线教育资讯|Hl&j\0o

This increasingly available mobile access also will lead to the beginning of another trend that could be called the "big bundle." Sprint, which has been partnering with several large cable operators, has indicated that it plans to offer all-in-one bill bundles of mobile and landline voice and data services as well as media and other entertainment. The incumbent telecom operators are likely to follow. Companies such as EarthLink Inc., which will be installing metro Wi-Fi in a number of cities, could easily create partnerships to create similar bundles.在线教育资讯*sI)E3Iwe:P@

^Ls#UOVGKJ0In the short term, this will mean more competition and lower prices as regional incumbent carriers such as AT&T Inc. will compete directly with other large providers such as Sprint and its cable partners, a competition that doesn't exist now.

"Right now, there are mostly monopolies for these services," Kerton said. "This will lead to duopolies, which are somewhat better."

)C"A4@;~7s*e0r$g CI0However, this trend also will make it difficult for so-called competitive telecommunications companies to stay in business. These are the small telecom operators that are available in many areas but don't have the wherewithal to offer such bundles. So, in the long run, this trend threatens to decrease competition.

Again, we'll see the beginnings of this trend in 2007, but it won't become a major factor until a year or two after that.在线教育资讯 ?E2JQv,}? f7p

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PY^9D03. The democratization of mobile e-mail在线教育资讯:h"?u
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IUp aM0n8m:d0Cheaper devices and more mobile access options will mean that more people will use more mobile applications. The most popular of these applications is likely to be mobile e-mail. Previously, only early adopters and higher-level executives had mobile e-mail devices like the BlackBerry. But with e-mail-capable smart phones now available for the masses, the masses will start using mobile e-mail.

p7{,yhet-s"^.q0"BlackBerries used to cost $500 or $600, which made them available mostly to people in the boardroom or high-level employees, where that expense could be justified," Kerton said. "Now, as IT managers are more familiar with mobile e-mail, that brings down the IT challenge. If you add cheaper devices, you have a significant drop in the total cost of ownership. So we're looking at any employee who spends time away from their desk having e-mail access."在线教育资讯,g Ic:U#U:bi`1_0Y

Some of that e-mail access will come via enterprise-class server-based applications such as Microsoft Exchange. But Kerton also predicts the rise of services from vendors such as Visto Corp. and Seven Networks Inc. that are being offered by cellular operators to provide easy, no-configuration access to e-mail for nontechnical users.

4. Search and discovery在线教育资讯h+ji*M$d]~H3p(g

Advanced mapping applications tied to the ability to track people carrying cell phones will start to catch on in 2007. These technologies build on the inherent ability for cellular operators to know where subscriber phones are.在线教育资讯(qlG({eo%Nm

As a result, we'll see more "child finder" and "buddy finder" applications. This class of applications enable parents to see where their cell-phone-toting children are, for instance.在线教育资讯7^6c5t ot+MU;H

Q4y O$A6dOcQ i0"It's the parental thing -- 'Where are my kids?' " Kerton said. "Look them up on a map." This capability was first offered in the U.S. by The Walt Disney Co., which runs its own cellular service, but other providers are starting to copy it. The service could just as easily find friends and colleagues on a "buddy list."

Similarly, GPS that's built into cell phones will become increasingly popular, said Scott Smith, a futurist for Washington consulting firm Social Technologies.

"The U.S. has been behind in terms of familiarity with things like GPS in cars," Smith said. "But we're getting to the point where you can walk into a Target store and buy dashboard GPS devices for less money than before. And we'll see it increasingly in mobile phones."

5. Mobility gets social

riFu$j D0The social-community-based approach of Web 2.0 will increasingly become part of the mobile landscape in 2007.在线教育资讯.C%jk'pZ%L

"This is the glue that could tie a lot of [applications] together," Smith said. "It could be as simple as mobile MySpace or sharing media with friends. Or it could be mobile blogging."

While these sites are already popular with desktop users, it's taking longer for them to become as big for mobile users, said Ken Dulaney, a Gartner Inc. vice president for mobile computing. Certainly, more powerful mobile devices with larger screens, such as the new generation of inexpensive smart phones, will speed adoption of these newly mobilized applications because such devices make it easier to access such sites.

VY"I\ruc0Ultimately, mobile communities can be connected with location-based services, the experts agreed. In other words, you'll not only be able to access a person's MySpace entry, but you'll also be able to find out where they are -- if they want to be found.

6. Convergence: One phone, many places

Convergencerefers to an old but still largely unrealized dream of using a single phone -- and having a single phone number -- for both mobile and home-based calling. Sure, some people have switched to a mobile-only scenario, but true convergence means you can use the same phone for both landline calls and mobile calls. The phone will automatically detect the most advantageous network in terms of cost or signal strength and route voice calls and data over that network.

"If you have the right device," Smith said, "you won't have to figure out where to use a particular technology." Converged devices would include both cellular and voice over IP using Wi-Fi networks. Built-in software would seamlessly transfer between the two types of networks.

Some European operators have started offering such service, but in the U.S. it has been limited to atest launched recentlyby T-Mobile. That test is currently being conducted primarily in the Seattle area, but the company has said it expects to offer the service broadly in the next year.

"We'll see an acceleration of convergence in 2007, but it'll still be a bit rough around the edges," Smith said. "Initially, it'll be for the early-adopter audience, but people will clamor for it when they see what it can do."

7. Media, media, media

sv8_i r;?#B8C0More and cheaper mobile access and better and cheaper devices will lead to more use of mobile media.在线教育资讯O.{bFN[/?

p-?@q@V8U0"Development of media applications is accelerating," Smith said. "Look at the success of Sony Ericsson's Walkman phones. Apple already is facing competition for its iPod, and it may release iPhone. Microsoft will be developing the market forZune. All those things will accelerate mobile media in a more consolidated fashion than has been the case before."在线教育资讯7e9p7pW#j-f

In particular, Smith said he expects an upsurge in so-called place-shifted television, which uses products from vendors like Sling Media to transmit television from home to mobile devices. This has already started but will accelerate in 2007, Smith said.在线教育资讯&Ap'B.{$r%\
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